A Clear-Cut Biden Win Is Emerging as a Bull Case for Stocks, , on October 5, 2020 at 12:48 pm

Financial News
By
On October 5, 2020
In Financial News
Tags:

(Bloomberg) — With Joe Biden’s lead widening in the polls and President Donald Trump’s campaign sidelined by the virus, investment strategists now say there’s less of a chance for a contested election.A clear-cut Democrat victory could avoid a long and messy legal battle and provide certainty to markets that have been nervous about election risks, according to strategists from Citigroup Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co.S&P 500 futures pointed to a day in the green, havens including bonds are seeing little demand and the greenback is down.“Markets seem have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty post-November 3,” Barclays Plc strategists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Shawn Golhar wrote in a note Sunday. “Given that Vice President Biden has been ahead in most polls, this suggests that markets are assigning a bit more probability to his win and a bit less to a close and contested outcome.”JPMorgan Says a Biden Victory Could Mark a Shift in Stock MarketCross-asset traders are taking the newsflow in their stride, despite confusion over the president’s condition and more positive tests from Republican leaders. A poll released Sunday — taken between Tuesday’s debate and Friday’s news of the president’s infection — found that Biden’s national lead had leaped to 14 points, from 8 before the debate. Biden also has set two records for monthly fundraising in August and September, giving him enough money to dominate Trump on the airwaves.Barclays strategists point to a currency pair like the Aussie dollar versus the yen, a proxy for risk appetite. Its one-month implied volatility dropped to the lowest in weeks after the presidential debate. It has since rebounded, but remains below its 200-day average.The bank’s dollar-neutral Biden currency basket has also risen in recent days, a sign of rising confidence in the former vice-president’s prospects.Volatility markets have been pricing in risks from the election for months now, raising the bar for bad news to hit trading.When it comes to futures tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, contracts for the coming three months are all trading above the one expiring in January, signaling investors are expecting wilder equity swings around the election.But a weekend of confusion over Trump’s state of health has not deepened such anxieties. October’s contracts, which cover the polling date, are down 2% on Monday after jumping nearly 5% on Friday.On the betting market PredictIt, the chance of a Biden win stands at 64%, a tiny drop from a peak of 66% the day before Trump’s positive test was announced. A long-short strategy betting on Biden’s triumph compiled by Nomura Holdings Inc. and Wolfe Research has hardly moved since reaching a record high on Thursday.That confidence, combined with a continued economic recovery, will help support equity markets — and potentially even a rotation into riskier shares, according to Evercore ISI.“Passage of fiscal package 4 plus a Democratic sweep would be a significant support for value and cyclicals near term,” strategists led by Dennis Debusschere wrote in a note Sunday.If Trump’s conditions deteriorate, investors might start to wonder if the election could be postponed or who would run for the presidency in his place. But judging from financial markets’ reaction so far, that remains far from traders’ radar.“Our baseline – of a risk-supportive macro outlook despite election uncertainty – will not change unless the president’s health unexpectedly takes a worse turn,” the Barclays strategists wrote.Of course, there’s still no shortage of debate over whether Democratic or Republican policies would be better for investors. While some pundits say the former would raise taxes and tighten regulations in a blow to corporate profits, others point out a Democratic sweep could boost government and consumer spending to add a fresh leg to the risk cycle.All told, between the disruption wrought by the pandemic and a volatile sitting president, a humdrum transfer of power is seen as providing investor solace.“We do have sympathy with the idea that a clean election outcome is likely a positive event from here given the “chaos” risk overhanging markets,” strategists at Jefferies wrote in a note.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.,

A Clear-Cut Biden Win Is Emerging as a Bull Case for Stocks(Bloomberg) — With Joe Biden’s lead widening in the polls and President Donald Trump’s campaign sidelined by the virus, investment strategists now say there’s less of a chance for a contested election.A clear-cut Democrat victory could avoid a long and messy legal battle and provide certainty to markets that have been nervous about election risks, according to strategists from Citigroup Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co.S&P 500 futures pointed to a day in the green, havens including bonds are seeing little demand and the greenback is down.“Markets seem have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty post-November 3,” Barclays Plc strategists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Shawn Golhar wrote in a note Sunday. “Given that Vice President Biden has been ahead in most polls, this suggests that markets are assigning a bit more probability to his win and a bit less to a close and contested outcome.”JPMorgan Says a Biden Victory Could Mark a Shift in Stock MarketCross-asset traders are taking the newsflow in their stride, despite confusion over the president’s condition and more positive tests from Republican leaders. A poll released Sunday — taken between Tuesday’s debate and Friday’s news of the president’s infection — found that Biden’s national lead had leaped to 14 points, from 8 before the debate. Biden also has set two records for monthly fundraising in August and September, giving him enough money to dominate Trump on the airwaves.Barclays strategists point to a currency pair like the Aussie dollar versus the yen, a proxy for risk appetite. Its one-month implied volatility dropped to the lowest in weeks after the presidential debate. It has since rebounded, but remains below its 200-day average.The bank’s dollar-neutral Biden currency basket has also risen in recent days, a sign of rising confidence in the former vice-president’s prospects.Volatility markets have been pricing in risks from the election for months now, raising the bar for bad news to hit trading.When it comes to futures tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, contracts for the coming three months are all trading above the one expiring in January, signaling investors are expecting wilder equity swings around the election.But a weekend of confusion over Trump’s state of health has not deepened such anxieties. October’s contracts, which cover the polling date, are down 2% on Monday after jumping nearly 5% on Friday.On the betting market PredictIt, the chance of a Biden win stands at 64%, a tiny drop from a peak of 66% the day before Trump’s positive test was announced. A long-short strategy betting on Biden’s triumph compiled by Nomura Holdings Inc. and Wolfe Research has hardly moved since reaching a record high on Thursday.That confidence, combined with a continued economic recovery, will help support equity markets — and potentially even a rotation into riskier shares, according to Evercore ISI.“Passage of fiscal package 4 plus a Democratic sweep would be a significant support for value and cyclicals near term,” strategists led by Dennis Debusschere wrote in a note Sunday.If Trump’s conditions deteriorate, investors might start to wonder if the election could be postponed or who would run for the presidency in his place. But judging from financial markets’ reaction so far, that remains far from traders’ radar.“Our baseline – of a risk-supportive macro outlook despite election uncertainty – will not change unless the president’s health unexpectedly takes a worse turn,” the Barclays strategists wrote.Of course, there’s still no shortage of debate over whether Democratic or Republican policies would be better for investors. While some pundits say the former would raise taxes and tighten regulations in a blow to corporate profits, others point out a Democratic sweep could boost government and consumer spending to add a fresh leg to the risk cycle.All told, between the disruption wrought by the pandemic and a volatile sitting president, a humdrum transfer of power is seen as providing investor solace.“We do have sympathy with the idea that a clean election outcome is likely a positive event from here given the “chaos” risk overhanging markets,” strategists at Jefferies wrote in a note.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

,

Instant Quote

Enter the Stock Symbol.

Select the Exchange.

Select the Type of Security.

Please enter your First Name.

Please enter your Last Name.

Please enter your phone number.

Please enter your Email Address.

Please enter or select the Total Number of Shares you own.

Please enter or select the Desired Loan Amount you are seeking.

Please select the Loan Purpose.

Please select if you are an Officer/Director.

High West Capital Partners, LLC may only offer certain information to persons who are “Accredited Investors” and/or “Qualified Clients” as those terms are defined under applicable Federal Securities Laws. In order to be an “Accredited Investor” and/or a “Qualified Client”, you must meet the criteria identified in ONE OR MORE of the following categories/paragraphs numbered 1-20 below.

High West Capital Partners, LLC cannot provide you with any information regarding its Loan Programs or Investment Products unless you meet one or more of the following criteria. Furthermore, Foreign nationals who may be exempt from qualifying as a U.S. Accredited Investor are still required to meet the established criteria, in accordance with High West Capital Partners, LLC’s internal lending policies. High West Capital Partners, LLC will not provide information or lend to any individual and/or entity that does not meet one or more of the following criteria:

1) Individual with Net Worth in excess of $1.0 million. A natural person (not an entity) whose net worth, or joint net worth with his or her spouse, at the time of purchase exceeds $1,000,000 USD. (In calculating net worth, you may include your equity in personal property and real estate, including your principal residence, cash, short-term investments, stock and securities. Your inclusion of equity in personal property and real estate should be based on the fair market value of such property less debt secured by such property.)

2) Individual with $200,000 individual Annual Income. A natural person (not an entity) who had individual income of more than $200,000 in each of the preceding two calendar years, and has a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year.

3) Individual with $300,000 Joint Annual Income. A natural person (not an entity) who had joint income with his or her spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of the preceding two calendar years, and has a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year.

4) Corporations or Partnerships. A corporation, partnership, or similar entity that has in excess of $5 million of assets and was not formed for the specific purpose of acquiring an interest in the Corporation or Partnership.

5) Revocable Trust. A trust that is revocable by its grantors and each of whose grantors is an Accredited Investor as defined in one or more of the other categories/paragraphs numbered herein.

6) Irrevocable Trust. A trust (other than an ERISA plan) that (a)is not revocable by its grantors, (b) has in excess of $5 million of assets, (c) was not formed for the specific purpose of acquiring an interest, and (d) is directed by a person who has such knowledge and experience in financial and business matters that such person is capable of evaluating the merits and risks of an investment in the Trust.

7) IRA or Similar Benefit Plan. An IRA, Keogh or similar benefit plan that covers only a single natural person who is an Accredited Investor, as defined in one or more of the other categories/paragraphs numbered herein.

8) Participant-Directed Employee Benefit Plan Account. A participant-directed employee benefit plan investing at the direction of, and for the account of, a participant who is an Accredited Investor, as that term is defined in one or more of the other categories/paragraphs numbered herein.

9) Other ERISA Plan. An employee benefit plan within the meaning of Title I of the ERISA Act other than a participant-directed plan with total assets in excess of $5 million or for which investment decisions (including the decision to purchase an interest) are made by a bank, registered investment adviser, savings and loan association, or insurance company.

10) Government Benefit Plan. A plan established and maintained by a state, municipality, or any agency of a state or municipality, for the benefit of its employees, with total assets in excess of $5 million.

11) Non-Profit Entity. An organization described in Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended, with total assets in excess of $5 million (including endowment, annuity and life income funds), as shown by the organization’s most recent audited financial statements.

12) A bank, as defined in Section 3(a)(2) of the Securities Act (whether acting for its own account or in a fiduciary capacity).

13) A savings and loan association or similar institution, as defined in Section 3(a)(5)(A) of the Securities Act (whether acting for its own account or in a fiduciary capacity).

14) A broker-dealer registered under the Exchange Act.

15) An insurance company, as defined in Section 2(13) of the Securities Act.

16) A “business development company,” as defined in Section 2(a)(48) of the Investment Company Act.

17) A small business investment company licensed under Section 301 (c) or (d) of the Small Business Investment Act of 1958.

18) A “private business development company” as defined in Section 202(a)(22) of the Advisers Act.

19) Executive Officer or Director. A natural person who is an executive officer, director or general partner of the Partnership or the General Partner, and is an Accredited Investor as that term is defined in one or more of the categories/paragraphs numbered herein.

20) Entity Owned Entirely By Accredited Investors. A corporation, partnership, private investment company or similar entity each of whose equity owners is a natural person who is an Accredited Investor, as that term is defined in one or more of the categories/paragraphs numbered herein.

Please read the notice above and check the box below to continue.

Singapore

+65 3105 1295

Taiwan

Coming Soon!

Hong Kong

R91, 3rd Floor,
Eton Tower, 8 Hysan Ave.
Causeway Bay, Hong Kong
+852 3002 4462

Follow Us

Market Coverage